Cold Air Mass

Following the Sunday – Monday system (which is further discussed in the overview), active weather will continue. Right on its heels will be an arctic front that passes through Tuesday Night into Wednesday. This will then be followed by the coldest air mass of the year. So during this transition, there will likely be some precipitation. Of course, we will deal with the dilemma of having relatively mild air at the leading edge, then very cold air at the end. So the question is, how much of the precipitation will be rain vs snow, depending on how quickly the cold air can rush in.

In these situations, we usually look to climatology as a guide. What that generally means is that the main threat will be in NW NJ / Poconos, into New England (away from the coast). And for the most part, in those areas we favor a salting event for most, and perhaps low-end plowable for a few locations. Again, the timing is later Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Elsewhere, from the majority of NJ / PA into the Mid-Atlantic, this is a much lower threat. The one thing we will need to watch for is rain, ending briefly as snow as colder air rushes in. This is certainly a possibility, and if it does happen, we still favor a salting or nothing due to coming off of mild temperatures with likely wet grounds… The loop below shows the general idea of what we are thinking with this system.